Decisiums › Bid & Deal Engine
Engine 03 — Bid Decision

Determine whether to bid, at what price, and why.

Competitive bid pricing software — win probability, price floor, GO/NO-GO decision with full audit trail

A structured approach that takes your team from deal setup to a documented GO / CONDITIONAL / NO-GO — explicitly balancing win probability, margin, and strategic value before you commit.

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Bid & Deal Engine · Dashboard 5 — Bid Decision
GO
Deal: Apex Manufacturing — Automation Platform RFP
GO — Proceed to bid at $2.15M
74%
Win Probability
$1.59M
Expected Value
36%
Margin
Med
Risk
Decision score breakdown
Win probability
74%
Financial return
82
Strategic fit
90
Risk level
60
⚡ AI Strategic Debrief
At $2.15M you hold a 12-point advantage on implementation track record — your strongest differentiator. The price premium is defensible given documented delivery performance. Primary risk: incumbent relationship. Recommend pre-bid briefing to reinforce delivery evidence.
Business Impact

What structured bid decisions
actually deliver.

The commercial outcomes that follow when bid decisions are made explicitly — not by instinct, not by committee consensus, and not by whoever speaks loudest in the room.

Win more of the right bids — at better margins

A win probability model grounded in discrete-choice economics shows where you are genuinely competitive and where you are not — so pursuit effort goes to the bids you can win at a price worth winning at.

Stop pursuing bids you can't win profitably

Walking away is the hardest discipline in any commercial team. Hard stops on margin and win probability make the no-bid a rule rather than an argument.

Hold margins under negotiation pressure

Margins erode when a team enters a negotiation without a floor. Every concession is costed before the conversation starts, so nothing is given away to keep momentum.

Build an institutional record that compounds

Every decision documented, every override registered with its rationale. The organisation learns from its bid history instead of relearning it.

Example Decision — Industrials
Apex Manufacturing — Automation Platform RFP
GO at $2.15M
The situation
Lead competitor bidding at ~$2.0M. Internal instinct: match them or go slightly higher. No structured view of win probability or margin trade-off.
What the engine found
A $124K delivery track record advantage and $87K technical advantage — together justifying a $150K price premium. Win probability at $2.15M: 74%.
The decision
GO at $2.15M — not $2.0M. Documented rationale. Price premium defensible. $211K more margin than instinct suggested. AI flagged incumbent relationship as the primary risk to manage.
Illustrative scenario based on typical industrial automation bid structure.
How It Works

From deal setup to committed decision.

The engine structures the decision across three stages — each one making the trade-offs more explicit, until the decision is clear and defensible. Before anything is finalized, AI challenges the assumptions, tests sensitivity, and highlights hidden risks.

Deal Setup

Define the financial structure of the deal — your bid price, delivery cost, pursuit cost, floor price, and minimum margin. Define the competitive situation: is this a one-shot bid or a negotiation? How many competitors? What type of purchase?

These inputs establish the economics and determine what analysis is appropriate for this specific deal. Industry templates — Healthcare, Technology/SaaS, Industrials, Professional Services — pre-load relevant criteria so setup takes minutes, not hours.

Gross margin and EMV calculated immediately from bid price and cost inputs
Floor price auto-calculated from minimum margin if not set manually
Weighted criteria — price, capability, delivery, service, strategic fit — with $/point values that quantify your advantage
Competitive situation — one-shot bid or negotiation rounds — determines which analysis is unlocked
Stage 01 — Deal Setup
Deal name
Apex Mfg — Automation RFP
Your company
Acuity Systems
Bid price ($)
2,150,000
Delivery cost ($)
1,375,000
Pursuit cost ($)
28,000
36%
Gross margin
$747K
Gross profit
CriterionWeight$/point
Price level35%auto
Technical capability25%$45,000
Delivery track record20%$62,000

Trade-off Analysis

This is where the decision gets structured. Your offering and each competitor are scored on every criterion. Win probability is calculated using a discrete choice model calibrated to the weights — not estimated informally.

A price sensitivity analysis then shows how win probability and margin move together at different price points, with Expected Monetary Value calculated at each. The optimal price — the one that maximizes EMV — becomes explicit rather than argued over.

Win probability calculated via discrete choice model — your position vs. each competitor at any price
EMV at every price point — drag the slider, see win probability and margin move together live
Dollar advantage quantified per criterion — the economic case for your price premium made explicit
Value Equivalence Line — are you above or below the line? Determines whether your price is defensible
Scenario testing — model different combinations of price and non-price trade-offs (scope, delivery, payment, service terms) and how each competitor response (match, undercut, hold, bundle) shifts the answer
Stage 02 — Trade-off Analysis
Win probability at $2.15M
You
74%
Rival A
15%
Rival B
11%
Price sensitivity — win probability vs. margin
74%
Win prob. at $2.15M
$574K
EMV at this price
Value advantage vs. competitors
Delivery track record+$124K
Technical capability+$87K

Final Decision

Everything is synthesized into a single, scored decision. Hard stops — margin below floor, win probability below threshold — must be resolved before a GO is issued. Risk flags are surfaced explicitly.

If the answer is NO-GO, the engine identifies exactly what would need to change to flip the decision — so the conversation becomes productive rather than circular. Every decision is documented with full rationale and an AI strategic debrief that interrogates the logic before you commit.

GO / CONDITIONAL / NO-GO — a single clear answer with score breakdown
Hard stops and risk flags — must be resolved or overridden with documented rationale
What needs to change — if NO-GO, the engine shows exactly what would flip the decision
AI Strategic Debrief — interrogates assumptions, surfaces blind spots, confirms the reasoning holds
Stage 03 — Final Decision
● GO — Proceed to bid at $2.15M
Decision score components
Win probability
74
Financial return
82
Risk level
68
⚡ AI Strategic Debrief
Delivery track record is your primary differentiator — document it in the bid narrative. Price premium justified by $124K quantified advantage. Primary risk: incumbent relationship. Recommend pre-bid briefing to reinforce delivery evidence before submission.
AI Integration

AI that challenges your decision
before you commit.

The AI isn't making the decision. It's interrogating yours — surfacing what you may have missed before the bid goes out.

Flags weak assumptions
Reviews the criteria weights and scores against the stated deal context — and challenges inputs that look inconsistent or underdetermined.
Stress-tests price sensitivity
Examines whether the proposed price holds under realistic competitor responses — and whether EMV is being maximized or left on the table.
Surfaces overlooked risks
Identifies risk factors that the scoring matrix may not capture — incumbent relationships, procurement politics, delivery constraints — and recommends how to address them before submission.
Access Levels

What you can do at each level.

Three levels of access — start where your team is, scale as the value is proven. All levels begin with a consulting engagement. View full suite options →

Level 1 — Bid
What do we bid, and where do we walk?

AI reads the tender, derives the likely competitor set from the criteria and weights, and proposes the inputs you confirm. The engine then returns win probability, price corridor, EMV and a documented GO / CONDITIONAL / NO-GO.

Best for
The bids that today get priced on instinct because nobody had a week to analyse them.
Level 2 — Negotiate ✦ Most popular
How do we hold it in the room?

Everything in Level 1, plus AI that challenges assumptions before submission and guides concession strategy round by round.

Best for
Commercial teams managing competitive multi-round negotiations where assumptions need pressure-testing and concession discipline matters.
Level 3 — Defend
Can this survive the committee?

Adds Monte Carlo simulation, What-If Strategy Lab, and IC-ready debrief narratives for governance and investment committee review.

Best for
Pricing leaders and commercial strategy teams running large strategic bids requiring board-level visibility or investment committee approval.
What you can do
Level 1
Submission
Level 2
AI-Augmented
Level 3
Full Analytics
Decision Quality
Know your probability of winning — quantified, not estimated — before committing pursuit resources
✓
✓
✓
Enter every negotiation with a defined price corridor — floor, target, and opening position set before the conversation starts
✓
✓
✓
See the win/margin trade-off at any price point — so the optimal price is calculated, not argued over
✓
✓
✓
Leave every bid review with a documented GO / CONDITIONAL / NO-GO that survives executive and governance scrutiny
✓
✓
✓
AI & Negotiation
Have your assumptions challenged by AI before the bid goes out — not after the deal is lost
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✓
✓
Negotiate knowing what every concession costs you and what it delivers the buyer — and when to stop
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✓
✓
Override any result — but never without a registered rationale. Governance built in, not bolted on
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✓
✓
Advanced Scenario Analysis
Stress-test outcomes across price, margin, and competitive scenarios before committing — with probability distributions
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✓
Present bid decisions in IC-ready format — structured narrative for executive and investment committee review
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✓
Bid & Deal Engine or full suite? View all plans →
Get Started

See it run on a real decision.

We start with a live bid from your current pipeline — not a canned demo. In 60 minutes, you'll see exactly how the engine structures the decision and what the output looks like for your specific deal.

1
we configure the engine for your industry, deal type, and competitive situation.
2
We run a live decision from your pipeline through all five analytical stages — together.
3
You leave with a documented decision — and a clear picture of what ongoing access looks like.

Request a Walkthrough

We'll be in touch within one business day to schedule a session with a live deal from your pipeline.

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